Audley Shaw's public chiding of the Jamaica Constabulary Force's projection of a five per cent reduction in homicides this year notwithstanding, we fervently hope that the police achieve their target.

It is not that we, like Mr Shaw, do not hope for far fewer murders, but we accept that fighting crime in Jamaica, like managing the economy, is a difficult business. And with both, no manager can, as yet, claim success - certainly not any that is significant or sustained.

We, however, appreciate the constabulary's return to the idea of setting performance targets against which its leadership can be judged, having flirted with, but quickly abandoning the concept a few years ago.

In any event, a five per cent decline in murders will mean that 80 fewer Jamaicans will be killed this year than last, a toll that is about three per cent lower than in 2007, but still significantly higher than the previous year.

Learned lessons

Moreover, we suspect that the police have learned lessons from those who manage the economy. They are probably very wary about grand projections without the certainty of achievement.

Jamaicans, including the police, after all, know much about missed growth, inflation and fiscal targets and how these negate our capacity to create jobs and invest in the social and physical infrastructure. All of which, as perhaps Mr Shaw is aware, contributes to deep problems of anti-social behaviour, including violent crime.

If the police achieve or surpass their target, then they will perhaps have laid the foundation for a more aggressive assault on the crime problem and, specifically, murders. Such an effort is more easily sustainable if it is backed by public confidence in the constabulary's ability to achieve results.

Yet, even as we support the constabulary's efforts and have neither the wish nor the competence to second-guess their strategies, the latest crime data seem to suggest obvious areas of target to help drive the homicide numbers down.

For instance, of the 1,611 people murdered in 2008 - the most credible of the crime statistics -the police said 718, or approximately 45 per cent of those homicides, were gang-related. In other words, gang members killed each other because of inter-gang or intra-gang rivalries or disputes. While gang-related killings were 10 per cent lower in 2008 than in the previous year, it was 64 per cent higher than in 2006.

Worthy of pursuit

On the face of it, the figures suggest that a significant police concentration on the activities of gangs is a strategy worthy of pursuit.

Unfortunately, given Jamaica's relatively low rate of police personnel to population, the constabulary may not immediately have the manpower to use effectively the 'hot-spot' management system it introduced, with some success, three years ago.

Murders were down eight per cent in the Kingston Metropolitan region, including St Catherine, with the biggest percentage fall, 58 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively, happened in the Kingston Western and Kingston Eastern police divisions. Unfortunately, other divisions, particularly in rural communities, which perhaps lacked robust leadership and resources, showed large percentage increases in the number of homicides.

Now that Mr Shaw has effectively told Security Minister Col Trevor MacMillan of his disappointment with the job being done by the police, maybe we will see a greater allocation of resources to whomever is to be in charge of security.

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